那一天我漫步在夕阳下
看见一对恋人相互依偎
那一刻往事涌上心头
刹那间我泪如雨下
昨夜我竟呆立雨中
望着街对面一动不动
那一刻仿佛回到从前
不由的我已泪留满面
至少有十年我不曾流泪
至少有十首歌给我安慰
可现在我会莫名的哭泣
当我想你的时候
生命就象是一场告别
从起点对一切说再见
你拥有的仅仅是伤痕
在回望来路的时候
那天我们相遇在街上
彼此寒暄并报以微笑
我们象朋友般挥手道别
转过身后已泪流满面
至少有十年我不曾流泪
至少有十首歌给我安慰
可现在我会莫名的心碎
当我想你的时候
Monday, December 21, 2009
Sunday, December 20, 2009
Stock windfall for Google employees
and they got about 26% bonus last year. Who ever knows how much bonus they will have this year (30%+)? Wondering how many free dinners I can get this year, considering my 30+ Googler friends. BTW, the Google search party is the best I have been to.
Posted: 12/18/2009 05:19:33 PM PST
Updated: 12/20/2009 04:03:47 AM PST
NEW YORK — Google's employees couldn't have timed the stock market's turn any better.
A day before stocks bottomed in March, Google let almost 16,000 of its workers exchange their stock options. It turned out to be the deal of a lifetime.
The average exercise price for the options held by non-executives was around $521 a share at that time. But Google's shares were trading closer to $308 each, making the options all but worthless. So, Google repriced the options to where its stock closed on March 6.
Then something surprising happened. Like the broader market, Google's shares began to soar. Now, the stock is around $590, and each option has a profit of roughly $280. That amounts to a potential windfall for employees at the Internet search company of more than $2 billion.
What happened at Google illustrates the extremes of 2009 — lots of losers became winners, an unexpected outcome for a year that started deep in the doldrums.
The worst decline in stocks since the Great Depression turned into the biggest rally since that time. A lifeless economy showed signs of life again. Even banks that took billions of dollars in federal money to survive were able to pay back that money by the end of the year.
This turn of events is putting cash back into Americans' wallets. Net worth — the value of assets like homes, bank accounts and investments — is rising, up 5 percent to $53.4 trillion in the most recent quarter. That's the second straight quarterly increase after six quarters of steep declines.
Some 85 percent of Google employees had a portion of their options underwater when the company announced plans on Jan. 22 for the option exchange program.
The company declined to comment on the gains seen since the option price exchange.
The S&P 500 has followed a similar pattern, climbing more than 60 percent since the second week in March. The market's gains have added $5.1 trillion to U.S. household wealth, nearly half of what was lost during the market's downturn, according to Citigroup estimates.
Besides Google, 15 other companies also repriced options during the first nine weeks of the year. Ten of those 16 have seen dramatic gains in their stocks since, according to compensation research firm Equilar.
Saturday, December 19, 2009
真实、中肯—谈美国的生活和房价 zt
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Friday, December 18, 2009
It takes just 15 ciggies to raise lung cancer risk
A new study has shown that it takes just 15 cigarettes to increase the risk of developing lung cancer.
The study suggests that a person may develop one mutation for every 15 cigarettes smoked.
Using new DNA sequencing technology called "massively parallel sequencing," the researchers cracked the entire cell genome and found more than 23,000 mutations that the tumour cells had acquired.
The mutations were linked with exposure to the toxins found in cigarette smoke and had accumulated over the lifetime.
"The profile of mutations we observed [in the lung-cancer patient] is exactly that expected from tobacco, suggesting that the majority of the 23,000 we found are caused by the cocktail of chemicals found in cigarettes,” the Independent quoted Campbell as saying.
“On the basis of average estimates, we can say that one mutation is fixed in the genome for every 15 cigarettes smoked," he added.
Similarly, the study conducted on patient with skin cancer showed that malignant skin cells contained changes that resulted from exposure to ultraviolet light.
"With these genome sequences, we have been able to explore deep into the past of each tumour, uncovering with remarkable clarity the imprints of these environmental mutagens [mutation-causing agents] on DNA, which occurred years before the tumour became apparent," said Professor Mike Stratton at the Sanger Institute.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
U.S. pledge, signal from China spur hope for climate deal
Reporting from Copenhagen - Overnight gloom at international climate negotiations here has given way to cautious afternoon optimism, with delegates and observers expressing hope today that world leaders are moving toward clearing several key roadblocks to a new agreement to limit greenhouse gases.
Two moves revived the talks, which appeared this morning to be dangerously close to flat-lining.
The Obama administration announced that it would join allies in raising $100 billion by 2020 to help the world's poorest countries adapt to climate change, a number that stunned many environmentalists with its size -- and which appears to meet the top demand of China, whose stalemate with the United States had bogged down the negotiations.
In response, China signaled it was moving toward satisfying the top American demand: that developing nations such as China and India will limit their greenhouse gas emissions as their economies grow, and that those limits must be subject to some form of outside verification.
Chinese Vice Foreign Minister He Yafei told reporters in a news conference that China is open to "dialogue and cooperation that is not intrusive, that does not infringe on China's sovereignty" -- a major linguistic departure from the country's staunch opposition to transparency measures throughout the talks so far.
Nonprofit groups working closely with all sides said it appeared negotiators, while still facing a marathon of work today and Friday, were moving toward compromise on the central issues of transparency, money and emissions limits.
"We're better than 50-50" to get a deal, said Ned Helme, a climate negotiations veteran and president of the Center for Clean Air Policy. "The shape of the deal is clear. You've got the three pieces in play."
Upping the stakes and the seriousness of the talks, heads of state were streaming into the host Bella Center today. One by one, they took the microphone to exhort the summit to action.
"We must start to negotiate right now," French President Nicolas Sarkozy told fellow leaders, calling for heads of state to return after dinner and commence an intensive bargaining session.
Behind the scenes, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton sat down with leaders of several nations, including China, for bilateral talks.
Clinton announced the long-term aid package in a morning news conference. She said the unspecified American share of the $100 billion would come from public and private sources, would fund measures such as protecting carbon-heavy forests from logging and would be contingent upon nations reaching a broad agreement here that would lay the groundwork for a new treaty to combat global warming.
She made clear that the offer would expire at the end of the summit if no deal is reached, and that any agreement would need to include a way for the world to verify that developing nations make good on their emissions pledges.
"If there is not even a commitment to pursue transparency, that's kind of a deal-breaker for us," Clinton said.
The announcement came after Chinese officials warned other nations during overnight talks that China was doubtful that any broad agreement could be reached in Copenhagen, according to multiple sources close to the Chinese delegation.
Clinton's announcement appeared to reverse that thinking for the Chinese.
Carl Pope, executive director of the Sierra Club, called it "truly a bombshell."
Andrew Deutz, director of international government relations for the Nature Conservancy, called it "a huge step forward toward common ground" and "the type of high-level political offer that we've been looking for world leaders to bring to Copenhagen to reach a global deal."
More strident groups said the money fell short.
"Climate change is already killing people in Africa, and this commitment is simply insufficient to tackle the climate crisis," Mithika Mwenda, coordinator of the Pan-African Climate Justice Alliance, said in a news release.
Government officials and observers involved with the talks said in recent days that a major U.S. funding announcement could trigger a chain reaction leading to a broad agreement.
The long-term money offer, those sources said, could win over African and island-nation delegates who have long complained that wealthy nations are not offering deep enough reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
These delegates could then pressure China and India to compromise with the United States on transparency provisions, thereby clearing the two largest hurdles to an accord.
All sides in the negotiations acknowledge that time is running short, with heads of state beginning to arrive en masse today. President Obama lands here early Friday, the day the conference is scheduled to end.
Two moves revived the talks, which appeared this morning to be dangerously close to flat-lining.
The Obama administration announced that it would join allies in raising $100 billion by 2020 to help the world's poorest countries adapt to climate change, a number that stunned many environmentalists with its size -- and which appears to meet the top demand of China, whose stalemate with the United States had bogged down the negotiations.
In response, China signaled it was moving toward satisfying the top American demand: that developing nations such as China and India will limit their greenhouse gas emissions as their economies grow, and that those limits must be subject to some form of outside verification.
Chinese Vice Foreign Minister He Yafei told reporters in a news conference that China is open to "dialogue and cooperation that is not intrusive, that does not infringe on China's sovereignty" -- a major linguistic departure from the country's staunch opposition to transparency measures throughout the talks so far.
Nonprofit groups working closely with all sides said it appeared negotiators, while still facing a marathon of work today and Friday, were moving toward compromise on the central issues of transparency, money and emissions limits.
"We're better than 50-50" to get a deal, said Ned Helme, a climate negotiations veteran and president of the Center for Clean Air Policy. "The shape of the deal is clear. You've got the three pieces in play."
Upping the stakes and the seriousness of the talks, heads of state were streaming into the host Bella Center today. One by one, they took the microphone to exhort the summit to action.
"We must start to negotiate right now," French President Nicolas Sarkozy told fellow leaders, calling for heads of state to return after dinner and commence an intensive bargaining session.
Behind the scenes, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton sat down with leaders of several nations, including China, for bilateral talks.
Clinton announced the long-term aid package in a morning news conference. She said the unspecified American share of the $100 billion would come from public and private sources, would fund measures such as protecting carbon-heavy forests from logging and would be contingent upon nations reaching a broad agreement here that would lay the groundwork for a new treaty to combat global warming.
She made clear that the offer would expire at the end of the summit if no deal is reached, and that any agreement would need to include a way for the world to verify that developing nations make good on their emissions pledges.
"If there is not even a commitment to pursue transparency, that's kind of a deal-breaker for us," Clinton said.
The announcement came after Chinese officials warned other nations during overnight talks that China was doubtful that any broad agreement could be reached in Copenhagen, according to multiple sources close to the Chinese delegation.
Clinton's announcement appeared to reverse that thinking for the Chinese.
Carl Pope, executive director of the Sierra Club, called it "truly a bombshell."
Andrew Deutz, director of international government relations for the Nature Conservancy, called it "a huge step forward toward common ground" and "the type of high-level political offer that we've been looking for world leaders to bring to Copenhagen to reach a global deal."
More strident groups said the money fell short.
"Climate change is already killing people in Africa, and this commitment is simply insufficient to tackle the climate crisis," Mithika Mwenda, coordinator of the Pan-African Climate Justice Alliance, said in a news release.
Government officials and observers involved with the talks said in recent days that a major U.S. funding announcement could trigger a chain reaction leading to a broad agreement.
The long-term money offer, those sources said, could win over African and island-nation delegates who have long complained that wealthy nations are not offering deep enough reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
These delegates could then pressure China and India to compromise with the United States on transparency provisions, thereby clearing the two largest hurdles to an accord.
All sides in the negotiations acknowledge that time is running short, with heads of state beginning to arrive en masse today. President Obama lands here early Friday, the day the conference is scheduled to end.
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
DATA SNAP: Nov Housing Starts Rebound From Big Drop
==========================================================
U.S. Housing Starts Nov Oct ! Consensus: ! Total Starts: +8.9% -10.1%r ! +7.7% ! Single-Family: +2.1% -7.1%r ! Actual: ! ! +8.9% ! ========================================================== ByJeff Bater Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- Home construction rebounded in November from a big drop, rising more than expected as builders cautiously respond to recovering demand for new houses.Housing starts rose by 8.9% to a seasonally adjusted 574,000 annual rate compared to the prior month, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.
The report also said building permits, single-family groundbreakings and apartment construction increased.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires forecast a 7.7% increase in November housing starts, to an annual rate of 573,000.
The better-than-expected jump follows a surprising plunge in October. That drop was revised slightly; Wednesday's data said October construction fell by 10.1% instead of by 10.6% as originally reported.
The scary decline in October had raised concerns about the housing and economic recovery. Analysts blamed wet weather and the looming expiration of a fat tax credit for buyers for such a sharp reduction in groundbreakings.
The tax credit has since been extended, through April, and the weather was better. But worries about the economy persist, with the U.S. unemployment rate at 10%. A report this week showed the confidence of home builders dipped in December. The National Association of Home Builders on Tuesday said its housing market index slid one point, to 16. Builders lost confidence in current sales conditions and expectations for the next six months, the report said.
Aside from joblessness restraining home buying, builders are also worried about the potential for more foreclosures. An increase in distressed property would add to supply in the existing-home market; the discounted price tags would likely lure buyers away from the new-home market.
The housing crisis and recession sent new-home sales crashing, but demand hit bottom in January and, since then, has climbed 31%, the latest government data show. Affordability, the economic recovery, and tax relief has drawn buyers. With the sales increase, inventories of unsold homes have shrank, leading some builders to resume construction. Starts last month have gone up 20% from an April low of 479,000.
Wednesday's data showed building permits in November rose 6.0% to a 584,000 annual rate. Economists had expected permits to rise by 3.3% to a rate of 570, 000. October permits decreased 4.2% to 551,000. Building permits are a sign of future construction.
Single-family housing starts in November compared to the prior month rose 2.1% to 482,000.
Apartment construction - housing with two or more units - surged 67.3% to 92, 000. Within that multi-family category, groundbreakings of homes with five or more units were 62.7% higher.
Regionally in November, housing starts rose 12.3% in the South, 16.4% in the Northeast, 3.0% in the Midwest, and 1.9% in the West.
Year over year, housing starts in the U.S. last month were 12.4% lower than the pace of construction in November 2008 .
-By Jeff Bater , Dow Jones Newswires; 202 862 9249; jeff.bater@dowjones.com
2010 Outlook: Asset & Regional Allocation
Macro
■
We target 4.1% global GDP growth (3.3% in the US) in 2010 and think core
inflation will remain muted. We expect the Fed to keep rates on hold until Q4
2010 and believe that a government bond funding crisis can be postponed
until there is a clear pick-up in bank lending to the private sector (unlikely
until late 2010).
Asset allocation
■
Equities: stay overweight. We target a 12% increase in global markets by
mid-2010 (S&P 1,220), but believe a renewed bear market will emerge in
late-2010;
■
Bonds: benchmark corporate and government bonds. Equities now clearly
look more attractive than corporate bonds.
Regional allocation
■
Overweight Non-Japan Asia, Latam and Europe: we add to our overweights
of Non-Japan Asia and Continental Europe;
■
Underweight the UK and the US: we take the UK from a small overweight to
underweight and stay underweight the US;
■
Benchmark Japan.
Economic overview
We forecast 4.1% global GDP growth in 2010 (3.3% GDP growth in the US). The
following factors support economic growth:
■
We believe that corporates have overshed labour, especially in the US (there has
been a record decline in employment relative to GDP, with hours worked down 9%
from peak against GDP falling 3% from peak). Our models suggest that non-farm
payrolls in the US will rise in Q1. This is critical as US consumption growth can really
only be sustained via employment growth (with a saving ratio at just 4.4%);
■
Corporates are under-invested: FCF is at a record high; the investment share of GDP is at a record low; and the best lead indicators of capital spending suggest a sharp pick-up nearly everywhere. Normally capital spending has a beta of 2.5x to GDP; however, during the downturn it was 7x (i.e., capital spending has seen an unusually severe fall relative to the drop in GDP);
■
US housing, we believe, is turning (largely because the house price-to-wage ratio is close to a 40-year low). This is critical with $8trn of MBS and housing accounting for a third of household wealth;
■
China. We think GDP growth next year will be around 10–11% and we think it unlikely
that there will be any attempt to slow growth significantly until economic—as opposed
to financial—overheating occurs. We would not expect this to happen until wage
growth accelerates—and that looks unlikely before 2011;
■
The inventory rebuild is yet to occur;
■
Only 30% of the $787bn US fiscal stimulus package has been implemented so far.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Is Bandwidth.com the Future of VoIP and Voice?
Bandwidth.com, despite having a name only a late ’90s investor could love, has built a profitable all-IP network and expects to bring in $85 million in sales this year. Today it also is announcing that it’s opening up its network as a platform for any business that wants to build out a voice over IP service — and it sees voice as merely a launchpad for even more communications services.
Todd Barr, vice president of marketing at Bandwidth.com, says the company has shifted its business to providing voice services over its platform as a way to boost margins. The newly launched FlexNet option for VoIP services will later be joined by new services for its business-oriented VoIP product called Phonebooth. Bandwidth.com also owns the FreePBX graphical user interface that sits on top of open-source telephony efforts like Asterisk.
Barr did not disclose the 10-year-old company’s profits, but said that Bandwidth.com is profitable. So far Bandwidth.com is the back-end network for services like Voxeo, ifbyphone, OnState & Yext, which are using its FlexNet product. The network is set to deliver almost 4 billion minutes of voice service in 2009, with well over 1 million phone numbers, but perhaps its best client is one it can’t mention. Ardent users of Google’s telephone listing service GOOG-411 may recall hearing the name Bandwidth.com before some of their calls were connected, and it’s also a provider behind the Google Voice service.
Bandwidth.com may be experiencing success lately, but the company also is indicative of the future of voice. T.R. Missner, CTO of Bandwidth.com, points out that the company has no debt, in part because it didn’t have to build out a legacy copper network, and has the ability to invest in equipment and infrastructure where the demand is rather than by serving every place, all at once. As it opens up its platform and attracts more end users, it also gains an advantage in peering negotiations with legacy providers, a move that can take its costs down even more.
“Once you get millions of end points you have degrees of freedom to do interesting things like peering,” said Barr. “If you call another number in our own network and never hit the PSTN [public switched telephone network], there’s a lower cost, but if you hit the PSTN you have to pay everyone in the whole telco value chain.”
But it’s not really about voice. Bandwidth.com is using voice to get those millions of end points and some negotiating power — not to mention money for expansion. So far it has raised an undisclosed amount of funding from individual investors and financed its growth from its own sales. But the real excitement is about providing services in addition to voice, such as SMS or even presence awareness tied to a social-networking platform and your phone.
Building that type of network is cheaper, and means that Bandwidth.com doesn’t have to manage its network to meet certain regulatory requirements, which also adds to costs. For example, the network today only serves the continental United States. Many aspects of its network and business model map to the future I envisioned a few weeks back in a post called “The FCC Sees the Future — and It’s VoIP.” However, my friends in the copper world gave me flak for discounting issues like the importance of five-nines availability, and doubted that all-IP was the future of voice.
Maybe not, but the Bandwidth.com guys are happy to bank on that future with Missner saying that few people believe that five nines is the goal nowadays, and anyway, that aim is expensive to the point of being cost-prohibitive. Bandwidth.com builds redundancy into its network, which is built on Sonus gear and has three data centers where it connects to the public Internet in Dallas, Los Angeles and New York. However, if a server fails, the call is going to drop. The redundant network just means that when you try to call back it should go through thanks to the packets getting sent over a different route.
“In general we think of voice as an application rather than a utility service, and solve those [network architecture] problems in different ways that map to what people are doing today,” Missner said. With that in mind, his vision for the future of voice is pretty cool. He sees Bandwidth.com delivering “productivity as a service” and integrated into unified messaging, video and social networks, as opposed to voice or texts. BT is attempting a similar revolution after its purchase of Ribbit.
“We’re constantly looking at our future strategy, and we’re not going to tell anyone that being a VoIP CLEC is a 10-year business plan,” Missner said.
Saturday, December 12, 2009
You are what you are reading: wall street journal
Gold at 4-Week Low, Settles Under $1,120
Gold futures hit the lowest level in four weeks Friday when a strong U.S. retail-sales report boosted the U.S. dollar.
"Expectations are rising that the U.S. economy may not be faring as badly as many would have expected," said Carlos Sanchez, associate director of research with CPM Group. "That, of course, suggests rate hikes may look increasingly likely earlier rather than later for next year."
This view underpinned the dollar and consequently pressured gold due to their inverse relationship. Investors often buy gold as a hedge against dollar weakness and conversely sell the metal when the greenback strengthens.Christmas Tree Sales Augur Busy Gift-Shopping Season
This holiday season has been better so far to Christmas tree farmer Donald Cameron than last year's, when worries about the economy sapped sales.
"It may be an excellent year," said Mr. Cameron, owner of Christmas Ranch Tree Farms in Thousand Oaks, Calif.
Getty Images
Matt Susser (center) and Chris Gannon carry Christmas trees on Friday to be displayed in Mary O's, a bar in New York City's East Village. Christmas tree sales, which are looking up this year, can be a reliable gauge of the strength of holiday-season shopping.
Christmas tree sales can be a good gauge of the strength of the holiday-shopping season. And this year, the word from wholesale growers, choose-and-cut farms and sidewalk sellers is that the needles are pointing up.
Christmas tree sellers surveyed by ISI Group, a New York research firm, said sales the weekend after Thanksgiving were up 6% from a year earlier, and that the following weekend they were up 3%.
That is a reversal from 2008, which marked the steepest drop in holiday-season sales since the 1930s. Last year, sales of real Christmas trees fell almost 10% to 28.2 million trees, down from 31.3 million in 2007, according to a Harris Interactive poll commissioned by the National Christmas Tree Association. With customers gravitating toward shorter, less expensive trees, the average price per tree fell to $36.50 in 2008 from $41.00 the year before.- "This article seems like a complete distortion of the facts, written to further perpetuate the lie that the economy is actually improving.If sales of trees are up just 6% from an eighty year low, is this really an indicator of growth. Add the sale of artificial trees being counted, with 6 million less being sold, even accounting for the boost in real tree sales there is a net loss on the total number of trees sold.And the article points out that more people are buying smaller trees, which indicates a frugality exacerbated by the economic downturn. Even the 12 year old in the article had it right, there are less sales this year.No mention of how this 'Augur's' gift buying at all. The WSJ should try to remember that their job is not to try and make us believe in something, or to boost consumer confidence, but to report the facts."
- "Just when I thought that the stupidity in financial reporting could not get any worse, along comes this total nonsense. OK lets see, sales for real christmas trees are up 6% this year and fake christmas trees are down 33%. In 2008 28.2 million real christmas trees were sold and 17.4 million fake trees were sold for a total of 45.6 million total christmas trees. This year real christmas trees were up 6% to 29.9 million trees but fake christmas trees were down to 11.7 million christmas trees, for a total of 41.6 million christmas trees total. So, in 2008 a total of 45.6 million christmas trees were sold(fake and real combined), in 2009 a total of 41.6 million christmas trees were sold. We sold a total of 4 million LESS trees this year compared to last year(about 10%) If christmas trees are a economic indicator then the correct title of this article should read, "Christmas tree sales down 10% indicating a bleak christmas shopping season." Can we please have some REAL financial reporting for a change, were all big boys and girls now, we can deal with it."
- "Two years ago the WSJ was writing stories about research firms that assessed Black Friday sales by counting cars in Mall parking lots. Today we get this piece of wretched reporting. What's next? Ornament sales? What has the Journal become? And then to add insult to injury the WSJ has the unmitigated gall to raise subscription rates by 30%!
While they're counting trees they can count me, GONE...."
TD芯片技术问题突出遭遇二次洗牌
多普达COO许伟德在接受记者采访时表示，在过去的一年半时间里，多普达仅推出了一款TD手机，但是在接下来的一年时间里，多普达将推出7款TD手机，占明年规划的所有产品的一半，“因为我们确信明年TD市场将是最具潜力，也是最有机会的一个市场。”
与此同时，有两则关于明年TD市场发展规划的消息在业界传开。首先，中国移动明年将发展至少3000万TD用户。其次，中国移动明年将提供300 亿元补贴终端，这一数字是今年的三倍。
来自手机厂商和运营商的双重利好信息，从根本上盘活了此前一直在等待“救赎”的TD芯片市场。
但是值得注意的是，在TD芯片市场整体明朗化的同时，现有TD芯片厂商不得不面对的一个更为严峻的事实：随着更多芯片厂商加入TD阵营，明年或将开始新一轮的TD芯片市场洗牌期。
上一轮洗牌期出现在2008年初，当时由于TD市场迟迟无法启动商用，芯片企业全面陷入困境，核心企业之一凯明倒闭。
技术问题依然突出
今年10月，联想移 动在推出EDGE版本OPhone后又紧接着向媒体展示了第一款TD版本OPhone。从外形设计上来看，两款产品比较唯一的区别是，TD版OPhone 比EDGE版 OPhone厚数毫米，整体显得笨重许多。而使用两款手机之后就会发现，TD版本OPhone在稳定性、功耗等方面的问题比较突出。
从技术层面来说，这主要是因为目前中国移动要求所有的TD手机都必须向下兼容GSM/EDGE网络。这就意味着TD手机都需要两套通信模块，多个主芯片，最终导致TD手机体积庞大、功耗大、稳定性差、切换成功率不足等一系列问题。
然而事实上，联想的这款OPhone的芯片数已经是同类手机中使用芯片数量最少的一款。据展讯相关负责人称，该款OPhone所采用的芯片解决方案中只使用了两块主芯片。而其他芯片解决方案的TD手机主芯片数基本都在三四块以上。尤其是加载CMMB功能芯片之后，手机设计的余地就非常小。
“另外必须看到的是，目前TD芯片本身还比较弱，相对WCDMA、CDMA2000而言，TD芯片在成熟度等方面至少落后一年至一年半时间。”一家核心TD手机厂商负责人向记者表示。
这已经成为业界诟病TD的主要原因之一。
技术和市场的相互驱动
但许伟德指出，需要明确的两点是，第一，主芯片过多、集成度不够、功耗大、稳定性差等问题并不是TD所独有的，而且TD芯片的问题也不仅仅限于此，但这都不致命。第二，技术问题并不是真正阻碍TD手机发展的根本问题。
首先，双模尤其是双模3G手机芯片过多并不是TD所独有的。例如，第一代的GSM/WCDMA双模手机的核心套片往往需要6块芯片：GSM/WCDMA数 字基带、GSM/GPRS和 WCDMA模拟基带各一块、GSM/GPRS的RF器件、WCDMARx器件与WCDMATx器件。直到第二代核心套片芯片数量才减少到四块：GSM /GPRS/WCDMA数字基带、GSM/GPRS/WCDMA模拟基带、GSM/GPRSRF器件、WCDMARF器件。而目前最新的TD芯片主流解决 方案都做到了四块，甚至四块以下。
而且事实上，和集成度、功耗等问题相比，更为严重的问题还不仅限于此。“虽然目前主流芯片厂商都宣称能达2.8Mbps下载速录，但实际上现在市面上的 TD手机一般只能达到1.6Mbps左右。”一家TD芯片厂商负责人在接受记者采访时坦言，“芯片的成熟度和硬件指标(HSPA) 才是衡量TD芯片的关键因素。很显然，目前TD芯片在这两方面都相对欠缺。”
但是这样的问题并不是致命性的问题。而且经过前期中国移动和终端以及芯片厂商共同投入研发，目前已经取得阶段性成果。以近期多普达和中国移动、 T3G共同研发的麒麟T8388为例，这款手机的硬件和软件水平，就得到极大的提升。“虽然TD芯片技术成熟度上相对落后，但是发展速度却是领先的。例如 今年TD芯片就推出了三代产品。以这个速度发展，TD芯片将在一两年内追平其他两种3G芯片技术。”许伟德指出。
其次，“技术从来就不是阻碍市场发展的核心问题，问题在于用户对该产品是否需要，或者这个产品对用户是否有吸引力。”许伟德指出。
众所周知的是，无论是WCDMA手机还是此前中国联通主导推出的GSM/CDMA双模手机，上市之初，乃至当下，都不同程度地存在和TD一样的问题，但是 却被广大用户所接受、包容了。“关键在于用户或者运营商需要这些产品。”T3G业务发展部总监牟立表示，“如今TD市场得到中国移动的大力支持和推动，市 场升温的速度远比想象的还快。”
企业进入盈利期
“我们看好明年TD芯片市场的根本原因在于，明年中国移动发展3000万用户的目标，以及明年中国移动即将提供的巨额手机补贴。”一家芯片厂商负责人坦言。进入年底以来，芯片厂商也已经感受到了TD手机市场升温所带来的芯片市场增长。
日前，ST-Ericsson(T3G的母公司)称其TD芯片出货已突破500万片，基于ST-Ericsson方案开发的TD终端产品已超过 100款，包括手机、数据卡和嵌入式设备。而此前牟立在接受记者采访时还表示，截至今年9月底，T3G的TD芯片出货量才刚刚突破300万。这意味着近两 个月间，T3G的芯片出货量达到了200万片。“这主要是因为近期中国移动TD终端共同研发基金项目手机即将出货，厂商需求大幅增加。”一位手机厂商负责 人分析说。例如12月2日，T3G的主要客户之一，多普达就高调宣布完成了和中国移动共同研发的TD手机的研发并即将交付。仅这一款手机明年就预计销售 15万部。
而半个月前，展讯在四个月连续亏损之后，首次交出扭亏的财报，财报显示今年三季度展讯实现净利润60万美元，而上年同期则净亏损3130万美元。并预计第 四季度营收将达3700万美元至4000万美元。据展讯市场部人士介绍，截至目前，展讯的TD无线座机芯片出货量已经突破300万，和中国移动共同研发的 中低端手机也将在年内批量出货。
但值得注意的是，看好TD芯片市场的不仅有现有的TD芯片厂商，Marvell等原本在TD市场之外的芯片厂商也开始看好并布局这块市场，“加上联芯科 技、联发科等TD芯片先行厂商也将调整各自的市场战略，新一轮的TD芯片厂商洗牌事实上已经悄然开始。”上述手机厂商负责人介绍说。
或进入下一轮洗牌
今年以来，TD芯片市场开始陆续出现新的身影。9月，Marvell高调加入TD芯片市场，并将推出一款OPhone单芯片解决方案PXA920，主攻目 前中国移动正在主推的OPhone市场。目前已有多家推出OPhone产品的手机厂商都采用了该方案，例如联想和LG等。
另外，TD芯片厂家凯明终止运营后，公司原高管分别创立两家新公司：苏州傲世通和上海杰脉通信，继续从事TD芯片研发。其中杰迈通讯被台湾的 Mstar收购，目前Mstar已经宣布将在2010年进军TDSCDMA市场。
而近日又有消息称，傲世通或将被高通收购，这也就意味着高通或将直接进入TD芯片市场。
虽然高通方面对此却表示否认。“在TD市场达到千万级用户之前，高通是不可能介入TD市场的。”一位高通相关人士告诉记者。“这极有可能是某些厂商单方面的炒作行为。”但是这也从另一个角度反映了这些厂商对当下TD芯片市场的看好。
另一方面，现有TD芯片企业也开始有新的动向。众所周知，目前联芯科技和联发科通过合作的方式提供TD芯片，其中联发科提供硬件，联芯科技提供协议栈和软件平台。
有消息称，目前上海联芯正在开发自己的TD芯片，预计2010年年初面世，这意味着未来联芯科技和联发科的合作关系将变得微妙起来。而联芯科技相关负责人 此前在接受记者采访时也表示，联芯科技和联发科的合作协议近两年就将结束，届时双方何去何从的确不得而知。有业内人士猜测，如果联芯科技推出自己的 TD芯片，联发科会很快推出自己的协议栈。事实上，联发科一向擅长的也正是同时向用户提供硬件加软件平台打包的方案。
至此，TD芯片厂商将由现有的四家增加为至少7家。市场规模增加的同时，竞争激烈程度也可见一斑。而在争夺现有TD市场的同时，另一场关于TD演进产品TD-LTE芯片市场的争夺也开始拉开帷幕。
虽然高通否认了直接切入TD芯片市场的消息。但是11月17日高通CEO保罗·雅各布却在香港表示明年将推出一款TD-LTE芯片。
另外，目前已经宣布推出TD-LTE芯片的厂商还有联芯科技，预计成熟产品将于2011年推出。而威盛集团旗下手机芯片公司威睿电通也在近日宣布即将进入TD-LTE芯片市场。
在一定程度上来说，“和争夺现有的TD芯片市场相比，布局未来的LTE芯片市场对于这些芯片厂商来说意义更大。而且事实上，这些真正布局TD- LTE的竞争者才是当下TD芯片厂商最具竞争力的对手。”一家国产TD芯片厂商负责人表示，“因为从目前中国移动的思路也可以看到，中国移动希望尽快演进 到LTE时代，TD作为一个过渡时代，也许只有几年生命。本土厂商能否抓紧时间成长起来，将面临巨大的考验。”
据记者了解，展讯、T3G也已经在TD-LTE领域开始布局，虽然这些现有TD芯片厂商由于具有TD芯片研发经验，在后续LTE产品的研发中具有一定的优势，但是却非常有限。
链接 TD芯片市场现有格局
2009年的TD手机芯片主要来自三家芯片厂商：T3G、联芯科技及展讯。其中T3G的主要客户包括三星、诺基亚、摩托罗拉、天宇朗通、华为及多普达；联芯科技主要客户包括中兴、宇龙酷派、LG等；展讯的客户包括联想、海信和新邮通。
TD芯片出货量方面，三大核心厂商也收获颇丰。据称，T3G目前出货量已达500万。联芯科技出货量也超过了400万片。展讯目前主要出货量集中在 TD无线座机市场，其无线座机芯片已经出货300万片。另外由于中标多个中国移动低价TD手机共同研发项目，其TD手机产品也有望年内批量出货。
此外，值得一提的是，此前在TD领域投入力度较大的重邮信科，由于产业化能力不足等方面原因，在2009年表现差强人意。2010年如果还不能扭转这种颓势，其处境将变得十分危险。
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